Trump’s second term, “Trump 2.0,” brings a return to unpredictability in U.S. politics. With full Republican control, Trump focuses on strict immigration, energy independence, and security policies. His unpredictable foreign diplomacy echoes past Republican strategies, especially with his conservative Supreme Court influence. International allies, particularly Japan, must navigate this shifting landscape.
Trump 2.0 set to repeat history of unpredictability
TOKYO — The second administration of Donald Trump — Trump 2.0 — officially started on Jan. 20, when he was inaugurated as the president of the United States.
The Republican Party’s historically significant victory in the November elections has given it a “triple red” majority. Its candidate reentered the White House, and the GOP now controls the Senate and House of Representatives.
To vote bills into law in the Senate, the Republicans will need to contain filibusters, attempts by the opposition party to delay or prevent a vote. In November, the GOP did not win the 60-seat threshold in the 100-seat chamber that would have ensured the passage of so-called “cloture” motions to bust the legislative filibuster. Nonetheless, a new president’s nominees for key federal government positions can be approved by a 51-seat majority in the Senate. This means that Trump can now exercise presidential power considerably as he attempts to deliver on his pet policies.
The U.S. Supreme Court has six conservative justices, inclined toward the Republican Party, versus three liberal justices, thanks to Trump’s appointment of three conservative judges during his first presidency. The top court’s tilt toward a conservative majority led it to overturn the long-standing ruling that had guaranteed the constitutional right to abortion. U.S. Supreme Court justices are appointed for life, so a majority of judges close to Trump’s way of thinking will certainly work in his favor when advancing his policies.
It is essential to read the 2024 Republican Party platform to understand what policies Trump will prioritize. The platform profoundly reflects Trump’s “Agenda 47” campaign pledges.
The GOP platform spells out a set of “20 promises that we will accomplish very quickly,” or in the first 100 days, under the preamble of “America First: Return to Common Sense.”
On the issue of immigration, which is the central axis of conflict with the Democratic Party, the Republicans pledge to “seal the border and stop the migrant invasion,” “carry out the largest deportation operation in American history,” and “stop the migrant crime epidemic.”
The Republican platform also calls for a return to reliance on fossil fuels with policies to “make America the dominant energy producer in the world” and “cancel the electric vehicle mandate.”
The Republican Party’s security agenda cites explicitly the need to “build a great iron dome missile defense shield over our entire country — all made in America.” In contrast, the platform’s wording is abstract, calling for efforts to “strengthen and modernize our military, making it … the strongest and most powerful in the world.”
Regarding trade, the GOP does not go beyond saying: “Our trade deficit in goods has grown to over $1 trillion a year. Republicans will support baseline tariffs on foreign-made goods … and respond to unfair trading practices.”
This ambiguity has been why speculative news articles have been published based on whatever Trump says. Trump himself appears to enjoy seeing people react that way. To better understand this phenomenon, it is vital to study the foreign policy pursued by past Republican Party administrations, which have been associated with unpredictability.
In a 1956 interview with Life magazine, John Foster Dulles, the U.S. secretary of state in the administration of Republican President Dwight Eisenhower, described the importance of unpredictability in international affairs: “The ability to get to the verge without getting into the war is the necessary art. If you cannot master it, you inevitably get into war. If you try to run away from it, if you are scared to go to the brink, you are lost.”
Dulles’ doctrine was inherited by Richard Nixon, who served as vice president in the Eisenhower administration. Nixon was later elected to the presidency and was known for the “madman theory.” He was quoted in the 1978 book “The Ends of Power” as saying, “I want the North Vietnamese to believe I’ve reached the point where I might do anything to stop the war.
“We’ll just slip the word to them that, ‘for God’s sake, you know […we] can’t restrain him when he’s angry — and he has his hand on the nuclear button,’ — and Ho Chi Minh himself will be in Paris in two days begging for peace.”
According to the Richard Nixon Foundation, Nixon touched on the tendency commonly found among U.S. politicians in their negotiations with foreign adversaries. “One of the problems … is the almost insatiable tendency … to want to put everything out on the table. Their inability to know when to bluff, when to call, and above everything else, how to be unpredictable. Unpredictability is the greatest asset or weapon that a leader can have — of a major country,” he was quoted as saying.
Foster democratic values
Trump said in a speech on foreign policy on April 27, 2016 — just a few months before winning his first presidential term — that “we must, as a nation, be more unpredictable.” This shows that Trump inherits Nixon’s unpredictability.
Generally, two possible diplomatic approaches to dealing with unpredictability are minimizing it and making oneself unpredictable.
The former is a realistic approach adopted by then-Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. He became the first foreign leader to meet with then-President-elect Trump at Trump Tower in New York shortly after the 2016 U.S. presidential election, building trust with the Republican leader through playing golf, which Trump loves. Then, while emphasizing an equal partnership with Washington and being considerate of Trump’s intentions, Abe carried out diplomacy to ensure that Japan’s stances were conveyed to the U.S. leader. As a result, the first Trump administration became far less unpredictable for Japan.
On Nov. 29, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said in his policy speech before the Diet, “Naturally, the United States has its national interests, just as Japan has its own.” His remark may imply that Japan and the United States will pursue their national interests separately. Ishiba could be seen as having chosen the second approach to make Japan unpredictable in the eyes of the United States regarding how this country will deal with Washington.
That said, too much is required of Japan as the most important ally of the United States. Japan has to make up for what the United States lacks in the Indo-Pacific and help foster democratic values to make it a free and open region.
Regarding Trump’s agenda as the U.S. president based on his campaign pledges, the United States is expected to concentrate on relations with its neighbors, Canada and Mexico, for the time being, considering that immigration has been the most significant domestic issue. Also, it is easily predicted that the Trump administration will soon increase fossil fuel production, easing environmental restrictions and using tariffs as a weapon in diplomatic negotiations.
Undoubtedly, Chinese President Xi Jinping, casting a sidelong glance at what the United States under the Trump administration is doing, will ramp up efforts to isolate the U.S. from the international community and create division between Japan and the United States and between the United States and Europe. To that end, China is likely to claim that it advocates such policies as measures to combat global warming and promote free trade that the international community can accept because, at first glance, they align with universal values.
In his Nov. 29 policy speech, Ishiba also said, “I believe that by exchanging views candidly and mutually enhancing the national interests of both [Japan and the United States], we can contribute to the realization of a free and open Indo-Pacific.”
In addition to strengthening the Japan-U.S. alliance, Japan should maintain and advance the Quad partnership among Japan, the United States, Australia and India and actively participate in the AUKUS trilateral security partnership between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States.
Moreover, Japan should prioritize proactively responding to a possible Taiwan contingency and enhancing relations with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, among other challenges.
Credits: TCA, LLC.