TNS
A Middle East shock rarely stays in the Middle East: it can show up fast in fuel, food, flights, bills, and even mortgage payments.
Fuels, bills, food, and mortgages: possible cascading effects from the war in Iran
The crisis in the Middle East will have direct impacts on prices and retail lists across a multitude of sectors, from food to energy bills, encompassing transport and tourism, and extending to mortgages, but to understand the true weight of the current crisis, it will be necessary to await the coming weeks and the market’s response to the new scenarios that will emerge. This is stated by Codacons, which reminds that there are already regulatory tools available to the government to limit the negative effects of the crisis on retail prices.
Currently, the greatest danger is represented by fuels – explains the association – The sudden increases in oil and pump prices, in fact, lead to higher transport costs for goods sold in shops and supermarkets, starting with food items, and also affect the tariffs of transport-related services, such as airline tickets. And the airline sector itself, called upon to recover the heavy losses suffered in recent days due to traffic limitations, could resort to a generalized increase in tariffs charged to consumers, with consequent cascading price increases in the travel sector.
The case of electricity and gas bills is more complex – warns Codacons – Those with variable-price contracts could soon see their supply tariffs rise, with heavy repercussions also for productive activities that will pass on higher energy costs to the final prices of products. Possible consequences also on the mortgage front: in the event of a resurgence of inflation, the ECB, as has happened in the past, will opt for an increase in rates, leading to heavier installments for those who have taken out a loan.
To better understand the current situation, Codacons provides a practical example: should the crisis in the Middle East impact the inflation rate by +1%, the annual expenditure of a family with two children would increase (with the same consumption) by +457 euros, an additional burden that would be added to the inflation already underway in Italy (+1.1% acquired in 2026 according to Istat) with a total bill for the same household examined of +959 euros annually.
However, the government already has tools to at least partially limit the impact of the current crisis, Codacons reveals today. Beyond the bogus requests from some associations that call for using public money to reduce taxation on bills and fuels, it is possible to resort to ‘mobile excise duties’ as established by decree no. 5/2023 which, simplifying a measure already introduced with the 2008 Finance Act, allows the government to use the extra VAT revenue guaranteed by fuel price increases to reduce excise duties on petrol and diesel, thus keeping final pump prices under control. Specifically, based on this decree, the Mef, in agreement with the Mase, adopts the excise duty reduction measure if fuel prices increase, on average over the previous two months, compared to the reference value expressed in euros indicated in the latest Def or in the Update Note presented to the Chamber.
Credits: TCA, LLC.