Kuwait Times
Military spending is at a record high as drones, AI and advanced weapons rapidly change how wars are fought.
SIPRI director warns of rising arms race, military risks in Middle East
Author: Faten Omar
Ambassador Karim Haggag, Director of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), delivered a lecture on Monday at the Saud Al-Nasser Al-Sabah Diplomatic Institute on “Armament and Security Trends in the Middle East,” addressing major shifts in global and regional security and the growing challenges posed by emerging military technologies. Haggag opened his lecture with an overview of the international security landscape, noting that global military spending was estimated to have risen for the 11th consecutive year in 2025, reaching $2.9 trillion, equivalent to 2.5 percent of global GDP and the highest level ever recorded.
He attributed the increase to the return of large-scale conventional warfare between technologically advanced states, citing the Russia-Ukraine war and the conflict in the Middle East, alongside growing strains within US-led alliances and intensifying security competition among major powers. He also highlighted what he described as the erosion of key pillars of the international order, including the weakening of arms-control mechanisms, the declining role of international law, particularly international humanitarian law, growing concerns over supply chains and critical minerals, and the reduced effectiveness of multilateral frameworks.
Diplomats and official attend the lecture. — Photos by Yasser Al-Zayyat
Ambassador Karim Haggag and Minister Plenipotentiary Dr. Mubarak Al-Hajri sign an agreement.
Changing nature of warfare
Haggag discussed the rapid technological transformation of modern warfare, pointing to the expanding use of missiles and drones for a range of missions, including precision strikes against targets deep inside enemy territory. He also highlighted the growing role of artificial intelligence in military operations, ranging from autonomous weapon systems capable of selecting targets with limited or no human intervention to decision-support systems used in military planning, target identification, and information analysis. Haggag also pointed to advances in conventional weapons that can produce effects approaching those traditionally associated with strategic weapons, alongside major changes in the economics of warfare and military production.
According to him, these developments are transforming security and military interactions by weakening some legal and strategic constraints on the use of force, accelerating the pace and complexity of military engagements, and creating multiple pathways for escalation and increased military risks. The distinction between civilian and military spheres is also becoming increasingly blurred, as is the traditional divide between conventional and nuclear domains, while the balance between offensive and defensive capabilities is becoming more difficult to maintain.
Security, armament trends
Turning to the Middle East, Haggag outlined a series of major shifts in the region’s security environment, including the return of direct armed conflict between states, citing the confrontation involving Iran, Israel and the United States. He said regional conflicts were increasingly taking on existential dimensions, particularly in relation to Iran and Palestine, while the US role in the region was also changing significantly amid its broader strategic competition with China and shifts in domestic American politics.
Haggag further highlighted the growing interconnectedness of regional conflict fronts, spanning Iran, the Gulf, Palestine, Lebanon, Iraq, Jordan, Yemen, the Zionist entity and Syria. At the same time, military spending in the Middle East has continued to rise in both scale and sophistication, reaching an estimated $218 billion in 2025, representing a 36 percent increase over the past decade. According to Haggag, the region is witnessing growing arms-race dynamics, the emergence of new forms of deterrence and pre-emptive military doctrines, and faster escalation of armed conflicts.
Towards regional stability
Haggag said achieving regional stability requires a comprehensive approach based on controlling arms races, developing a clear understanding of threat perceptions and the red lines of adversaries, reducing incentives for pre-emptive strategies, and establishing reliable mechanisms for conflict management and confidence-building. He called for the development of a stronger knowledge base capable of understanding increasingly complex security and military interactions, as well as the creation of new arms-control mechanisms, confidence-building measures, risk-reduction initiatives and tools for managing conflicts and crises. He added “The issue of armament is not limited to the military sphere,” noting that it has become an important part of international affairs and is connected to political, legal and ethical dimensions.
He explained that these issues are addressed through complex negotiating processes within United Nations bodies and through multilateral diplomatic channels. Deputy Assistant Foreign Minister for the Saud Al-Nasser Al-Sabah Diplomatic Institute, Minister Plenipotentiary Dr Mubarak Al-Hajri, said the institute’s hosting of the seminar comes as part of its vision to serve as a Kuwaiti platform where policymakers, diplomats and international researchers can come together to discuss the region’s most sensitive issues.
He added that “Kuwaiti diplomats today are required to understand the language of figures and military technology to the same extent that they understand the language of politics.” The seminar is part of a series of programs organized by the institute in cooperation with international research and academic institutions, aimed at preparing diplomatic cadres capable of analyzing and anticipating regional and international developments, while strengthening Kuwait’s position as a regional hub for dialogue and knowledge exchange.
Credits: TCA, LLC.