dpa International
Poland is preparing for the unthinkable as Russian drones, sabotage threats and rising tensions bring fears of war dangerously close to NATO territory.
Fear grows in Poland as Russian threat looms over NATO’s eastern flank
Author: Doris Heimann, Ansgar Haase, Carsten Hoffmann
Warsaw/Brussels — A group of men and women stands in the garden of the German embassy in Warsaw, surrounded by tents and olive-green tarpaulins.
Soldier Michal Szubert of Poland’s Territorial Defence Forces explains how to stay warm in an emergency using an aluminium emergency blanket and a candle. “It’s not about being comfortable. It’s about surviving,” he says.
Embassy employee Susanne tries it out on the spot. She crouches on the lawn with a tea light and the foil. “I wanted to experience what it feels like.”
Concern is growing in Poland about the possible spread of Russia’s war against Ukraine. “None of us knows what the coming months may bring,” says Germany’s ambassador to Warsaw, Miguel Berger.
Preparing for a possible crisis situation has become a major topic in Polish society, he notes, adding that “there is also a heightened sense of security awareness among embassy staff.”
That is why the embassy opted for the crisis training offered by the Polish army. The courses, titled “Ready,” are available nationwide and are in high demand.
Why the mood in Poland is particularly tense
Barely a day passes in Germany’s eastern neighbour without an alarming incident. Russian drones operating over Ukrainian territory have repeatedly struck targets near the Polish-Ukrainian border crossing at Dorohusk-Jahodyn.
A passenger train travelling from Kiev to Warsaw was also attacked there. Poland’s navy recently recovered a Russian drone from the Baltic Sea near the coast. A Russian Mi-8 military helicopter briefly violated the airspace of the NATO member state.
Prime Minister Donald Tusk has said that he expected covert drone attacks and missile strikes against his country. Poland is reinforcing its border crossings with Ukraine to resemble military checkpoints.
German armed forces soldiers are helping the Polish army to fortify the border with the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad with tank barriers.
Grim Danish intelligence assessment
This picture is consistent with an analysis published by the Danish Defence Intelligence Service (DDIS) last month.
“The security situation has deteriorated further. Russia has intensified its use of sabotage, destructive cyber attacks and is attacking targets in Europe with drones. The hybrid war is escalating,” the report states.
It also outlines a “low but growing risk” of limited military attacks by Russia against one or more NATO member states bordering Russia – potentially in the coming months.
Such an attack could occur, the analysis states, even while the war in Ukraine continues and even though Russia does not yet have the capabilities for a regional war with NATO.
One scenario cited by the DDIS is a targeted Russian missile strike on infrastructure critical to support for Ukraine.
Russia could subsequently claim the weapon had struck NATO territory only because of Ukrainian jamming measures. A false-flag operation using Ukrainian drones to conceal the origin of an attack is also described as conceivable.
Even a limited deployment of Russian soldiers on NATO territory is described as a possible scenario. However, the service assessed that this would likely require a build-up of regular forces at the border that would be difficult to conceal.
Russia’s goal, according to the intelligence analysts, is to test NATO’s cohesion or to divide the alliance – above all with regard to support for Ukraine.
Moscow is no longer trying merely to generate fear, but also to physically obstruct aid deliveries – through sabotage against arms manufacturers or rail transport, for example.
NATO on alert
The situation is viewed in similar terms at NATO headquarters in Brussels and within the German government. Few currently expect Russian President Vladimir Putin to risk an open attack on a member state.
However, the trend in so-called hybrid attacks – such as acts of sabotage, cyberattacks or disinformation campaigns that fall below the threshold of open military aggression – is being watched with concern.
“The number is increasing, the severity is increasing and the risk appetite is increasing,” according to a senior NATO official.
More than 200 hybrid attacks were recorded in the past year alone, not counting routine cyberattacks. The alliance therefore sees a risk that Russia could one day go too far in a hybrid operation, cause significant casualties and thereby trigger an escalation.
In Germany, Defence Minister Boris Pistorius recently told lawmakers in the Bundestag, Germany’s lower house of parliament, that security was under threat to a degree not seen for a long time.
Pistorius pointed to the explosive-laden drone over Lithuania that was shot down by NATO jets in September and the attempted attack at Leipzig airport in early August, when an explosive-laden drone was found near a Ukrainian cargo plane.
Officials have linked Russia to both attacks, which Moscow denies.
According to Pistorius, Putin wants to frighten people and Germany must continue to strengthen its defence capabilities as quickly as possible.
In a crisis: ‘Go west’
The Polish army’s crisis training for German Embassy staff lasts four hours.
During that time, participants learn how to filter contaminated water, start a fire using birch bark – and why a penknife can be more useful than an expensive multi-tool.
The final item on the agenda is the emergency backpack. A compass should go in it too, the instructor says – provided you know how to use one.
In a crisis, one direction is enough: “Go west.”
Credits: TCA, LLC.